Verstappen’s late-season resurgence, including a Singapore Grand Prix victory and consistent podium contention, has elevated him to the leading implied probability for second place in the 2026 drivers’ championship. With Antonelli holding a commanding lead at 340 points, the battle for runner-up sits among Verstappen (221), Russell (238), Hamilton (229), Leclerc (215), and Norris (201), where small margins and remaining rounds create volatility. Russell’s Mercedes teammate advantage and recent results keep him competitive in trader pricing, while Hamilton and Leclerc benefit from Ferrari pace but trail slightly. Norris and lower-probability drivers like Piastri face steeper gaps that recent form has not closed. The market reflects consensus on Verstappen’s momentum offsetting earlier deficits against the tight mid-pack group.