France and Spain lead the trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner due to their exceptional squad depth and recent success, with Spain’s unbeaten streak since 2024 and European Championship pedigree offsetting concerns over Lamine Yamal’s hamstring recovery, while France benefits from proven depth despite Hugo Ekitike’s Achilles absence. England’s strong recent form and Argentina’s status as defending champions with Lionel Messi available keep the top group tightly bunched, though Brazil faces notable setbacks from Rodrygo and Éder Militão injuries that have tempered enthusiasm for their campaign under Carlo Ancelotti. These factors, combined with the expanded 48-team format and competitive group stages, sustain a narrow implied probability spread among the leading nations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFrancia 18.6%
Spagna 16.8%
Inghilterra 11.3%
Brasile 9.2%
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
Francia
19%
Spagna
17%
Inghilterra
11%
Brasile
9%
Argentina
9%
Portogallo
8%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
3%
Norvegia
2%
Giappone
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Stati Uniti
2%
Marocco
2%
Svizzera
1%
Uruguay
1%
Messico
1%
Croazia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turchia
1%
Austria
1%
Svezia
1%
Canada
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
Francia 18.6%
Spagna 16.8%
Inghilterra 11.3%
Brasile 9.2%
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
$1,008,680,854 Vol.
Francia
19%
Spagna
17%
Inghilterra
11%
Brasile
9%
Argentina
9%
Portogallo
8%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
3%
Norvegia
2%
Giappone
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Stati Uniti
2%
Marocco
2%
Svizzera
1%
Uruguay
1%
Messico
1%
Croazia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turchia
1%
Austria
1%
Svezia
1%
Canada
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France and Spain lead the trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner due to their exceptional squad depth and recent success, with Spain’s unbeaten streak since 2024 and European Championship pedigree offsetting concerns over Lamine Yamal’s hamstring recovery, while France benefits from proven depth despite Hugo Ekitike’s Achilles absence. England’s strong recent form and Argentina’s status as defending champions with Lionel Messi available keep the top group tightly bunched, though Brazil faces notable setbacks from Rodrygo and Éder Militão injuries that have tempered enthusiasm for their campaign under Carlo Ancelotti. These factors, combined with the expanded 48-team format and competitive group stages, sustain a narrow implied probability spread among the leading nations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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