Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFrancia 18.1%
Spagna 16.4%
Inghilterra 11.5%
Brasile 9.2%
$968,848,634 Vol.
$968,848,634 Vol.
Francia
18%
Spagna
16%
Inghilterra
11%
Brasile
9%
Argentina
9%
Portogallo
8%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
3%
Norvegia
2%
Giappone
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Stati Uniti
2%
Marocco
2%
Svizzera
1%
Uruguay
1%
Messico
1%
Croazia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turchia
1%
Austria
1%
Svezia
1%
Canada
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
Francia 18.1%
Spagna 16.4%
Inghilterra 11.5%
Brasile 9.2%
$968,848,634 Vol.
$968,848,634 Vol.
Francia
18%
Spagna
16%
Inghilterra
11%
Brasile
9%
Argentina
9%
Portogallo
8%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
3%
Norvegia
2%
Giappone
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Stati Uniti
2%
Marocco
2%
Svizzera
1%
Uruguay
1%
Messico
1%
Croazia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turchia
1%
Austria
1%
Svezia
1%
Canada
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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