Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats ahead nationally by roughly 7 points heading into the November 3 election, consistent with the opposition party’s typical midterm gains against a president whose approval sits near 38 percent amid economic dissatisfaction and low right-track readings. This environment has produced a cluster of Democratic popular-vote leads in the 6–12-point range across multiple surveys released in the past two weeks, aligning trader pricing on those buckets while leaving limited probability on narrower or Republican-leaning outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting has given Republicans a structural edge in converting votes to seats, yet the national House vote margin itself remains driven primarily by the broad anti-incumbent sentiment captured in current surveys. Historical patterns of midterm swings and the slim starting Republican majority further reinforce expectations of a meaningful Democratic edge in the aggregate popular vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMidterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera
Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera
Democratici 8-10% 28%
Democratici 6-8% 21%
Democratici 10-12% 20%
Democratici 4-6% 12%
$135,714 Vol.
$135,714 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratici 16%+
1%
Democratici 14-16%
2%
Democratici 12-14%
7%
Democratici 10-12%
20%
Democratici 8-10%
28%
Democratici 6-8%
21%
Democratici 4-6%
12%
Democratici 2-4%
6%
Democratici 0-2%
2%
Repubblicani 0-2%
4%
Repubblicani 2-4%
3%
Repubblicani 4-6%
1%
Repubblicani 6%+
1%
Democratici 8-10% 28%
Democratici 6-8% 21%
Democratici 10-12% 20%
Democratici 4-6% 12%
$135,714 Vol.
$135,714 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratici 16%+
$3,561 Vol.
1%
Democratici 14-16%
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Democratici 12-14%
$4,620 Vol.
7%
Democratici 10-12%
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Democratici 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Democratici 6-8%
$15,674 Vol.
21%
Democratici 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Democratici 2-4%
$15,637 Vol.
6%
Democratici 0-2%
$18,277 Vol.
2%
Repubblicani 0-2%
$5,931 Vol.
4%
Repubblicani 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Repubblicani 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Repubblicani 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats ahead nationally by roughly 7 points heading into the November 3 election, consistent with the opposition party’s typical midterm gains against a president whose approval sits near 38 percent amid economic dissatisfaction and low right-track readings. This environment has produced a cluster of Democratic popular-vote leads in the 6–12-point range across multiple surveys released in the past two weeks, aligning trader pricing on those buckets while leaving limited probability on narrower or Republican-leaning outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting has given Republicans a structural edge in converting votes to seats, yet the national House vote margin itself remains driven primarily by the broad anti-incumbent sentiment captured in current surveys. Historical patterns of midterm swings and the slim starting Republican majority further reinforce expectations of a meaningful Democratic edge in the aggregate popular vote.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$135,714Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats ahead nationally by roughly 7 points heading into the November 3 election, consistent with the opposition party’s typical midterm gains against a president whose approval sits near 38 percent amid economic dissatisfaction and low right-track readings. This environment has produced a cluster of Democratic popular-vote leads in the 6–12-point range across multiple surveys released in the past two weeks, aligning trader pricing on those buckets while leaving limited probability on narrower or Republican-leaning outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting has given Republicans a structural edge in converting votes to seats, yet the national House vote margin itself remains driven primarily by the broad anti-incumbent sentiment captured in current surveys. Historical patterns of midterm swings and the slim starting Republican majority further reinforce expectations of a meaningful Democratic edge in the aggregate popular vote.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$135,714Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats ahead nationally by roughly 7 points heading into the November 3 election, consistent with the opposition party’s typical midterm gains against a president whose approval sits near 38 percent amid economic dissatisfaction and low right-track readings. This environment has produced a cluster of Democratic popular-vote leads in the 6–12-point range across multiple surveys released in the past two weeks, aligning trader pricing on those buckets while leaving limited probability on narrower or Republican-leaning outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting has given Republicans a structural edge in converting votes to seats, yet the national House vote margin itself remains driven primarily by the broad anti-incumbent sentiment captured in current surveys. Historical patterns of midterm swings and the slim starting Republican majority further reinforce expectations of a meaningful Democratic edge in the aggregate popular vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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