Democratic generic ballot leads of 2–6 points in recent national surveys align with historical midterm patterns under a Republican administration, supporting trader emphasis on modest Democratic popular vote advantages in the 6–12 point range as leading outcomes. Redistricting completed in 2025 added roughly 10 additional Republican-leaning districts, raising the popular vote threshold Democrats need for House control and sustaining elevated prices on narrower margins or “Other” results that encompass Republican edges. Primary results, candidate recruitment, and approval trends for the incumbent president remain key variables that could shift probabilities before November, with ongoing polling in battleground districts providing the clearest near-term signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDemocrats 8-10% 25%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$96,655 Vol.
$96,655 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
16%
Democrats 8-10%
25%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
9%
Democrats 0-2%
3%
Republicans 0-2%
6%
Republicans 2-4%
7%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 25%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$96,655 Vol.
$96,655 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrats 16%+
$2,236 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$1,526 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$3,715 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$5,277 Vol.
16%
Democrats 8-10%
$6,475 Vol.
25%
Democrats 6-8%
$9,950 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$4,585 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$13,123 Vol.
9%
Democrats 0-2%
$12,607 Vol.
3%
Republicans 0-2%
$3,880 Vol.
6%
Republicans 2-4%
$28,145 Vol.
7%
Republicans 4-6%
$1,935 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,202 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic generic ballot leads of 2–6 points in recent national surveys align with historical midterm patterns under a Republican administration, supporting trader emphasis on modest Democratic popular vote advantages in the 6–12 point range as leading outcomes. Redistricting completed in 2025 added roughly 10 additional Republican-leaning districts, raising the popular vote threshold Democrats need for House control and sustaining elevated prices on narrower margins or “Other” results that encompass Republican edges. Primary results, candidate recruitment, and approval trends for the incumbent president remain key variables that could shift probabilities before November, with ongoing polling in battleground districts providing the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$96,655Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic generic ballot leads of 2–6 points in recent national surveys align with historical midterm patterns under a Republican administration, supporting trader emphasis on modest Democratic popular vote advantages in the 6–12 point range as leading outcomes. Redistricting completed in 2025 added roughly 10 additional Republican-leaning districts, raising the popular vote threshold Democrats need for House control and sustaining elevated prices on narrower margins or “Other” results that encompass Republican edges. Primary results, candidate recruitment, and approval trends for the incumbent president remain key variables that could shift probabilities before November, with ongoing polling in battleground districts providing the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$96,655Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democratic generic ballot leads of 2–6 points in recent national surveys align with historical midterm patterns under a Republican administration, supporting trader emphasis on modest Democratic popular vote advantages in the 6–12 point range as leading outcomes. Redistricting completed in 2025 added roughly 10 additional Republican-leaning districts, raising the popular vote threshold Democrats need for House control and sustaining elevated prices on narrower margins or “Other” results that encompass Republican edges. Primary results, candidate recruitment, and approval trends for the incumbent president remain key variables that could shift probabilities before November, with ongoing polling in battleground districts providing the clearest near-term signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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