Mary Peltola's strong name recognition from her prior statewide wins under ranked-choice voting and consistent polling leads near 46% keep the Alaska Senate race tightly contested against incumbent Dan Sullivan. Recent surveys, including Alaska Survey Research and Times/Siena tracking through mid-2026, show margins of just 1-4 points, reflecting Alaska's moderate electorate and the open top-four primary on August 18 that funnels candidates into an RCV general election. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican organizational support, while both campaigns have raised over $11 million, underscoring intense national attention on this toss-up seat. The presence of minor candidates, including a same-name primary challenger, adds minor ballot complexity but has not shifted the core dynamics, leaving trader consensus aligned with the competitive polling environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato dell'Alaska
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato dell'Alaska
Mary Peltola 51%
Dan Sullivan 49%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$393,235 Vol.
$393,235 Vol.
Mary Peltola
51%
Dan Sullivan
49%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 51%
Dan Sullivan 49%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$393,235 Vol.
$393,235 Vol.
Mary Peltola
51%
Dan Sullivan
49%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola's strong name recognition from her prior statewide wins under ranked-choice voting and consistent polling leads near 46% keep the Alaska Senate race tightly contested against incumbent Dan Sullivan. Recent surveys, including Alaska Survey Research and Times/Siena tracking through mid-2026, show margins of just 1-4 points, reflecting Alaska's moderate electorate and the open top-four primary on August 18 that funnels candidates into an RCV general election. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican organizational support, while both campaigns have raised over $11 million, underscoring intense national attention on this toss-up seat. The presence of minor candidates, including a same-name primary challenger, adds minor ballot complexity but has not shifted the core dynamics, leaving trader consensus aligned with the competitive polling environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti