Mary Peltola leads trader pricing in the Alaska Senate race due to her dominant 49.5% finish in the August nonpartisan primary, which advanced her as the sole Democrat against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and two minor Republican candidates. Recent polls show Peltola ahead or statistically tied in first-round preferences, with ranked-choice voting simulations projecting her victory by margins such as 53-47. Fisheries management disputes, including trawl bycatch, have emerged as central campaign issues that play to Peltola’s background as a Yup’ik fisherman. Sullivan’s reelection path is narrowed by potential vote splitting among Republicans and Alaska’s RCV system, though his incumbency and rural support keep the contest within reach before November 3.