Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 57.6% implied probability due to his record-breaking 2025/26 campaign, where the Bayern Munich striker contributed to 81 goals across 65 club and England matches, including 36 Bundesliga strikes and strong World Cup output that capped a career-best season. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the back of Barcelona form and Spain's World Cup campaign, though his lower goal tallies compared to Kane limit his edge in the current trader consensus. Kylian Mbappé, Rodri, and Lionel Messi trail at single digits amid more limited club or international impact during the voting window from August 2025 to July 2026. Recent post-World Cup adjustments have reinforced Kane's position as the frontrunner, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in his consistency across Bundesliga, Champions League, and international fixtures over Yamal's emerging talent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHarry Kane 57.5%
Lamine Yamal 21.3%
Kylian Mbappé 8.3%
Rodri 8%
$27,501,820 Vol.
$27,501,820 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
21%
Kylian Mbappé
8%
Rodri
8%
Lionel Messi
2%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Pau Cubarsi
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
Harry Kane 57.5%
Lamine Yamal 21.3%
Kylian Mbappé 8.3%
Rodri 8%
$27,501,820 Vol.
$27,501,820 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
21%
Kylian Mbappé
8%
Rodri
8%
Lionel Messi
2%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Pau Cubarsi
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 57.6% implied probability due to his record-breaking 2025/26 campaign, where the Bayern Munich striker contributed to 81 goals across 65 club and England matches, including 36 Bundesliga strikes and strong World Cup output that capped a career-best season. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the back of Barcelona form and Spain's World Cup campaign, though his lower goal tallies compared to Kane limit his edge in the current trader consensus. Kylian Mbappé, Rodri, and Lionel Messi trail at single digits amid more limited club or international impact during the voting window from August 2025 to July 2026. Recent post-World Cup adjustments have reinforced Kane's position as the frontrunner, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in his consistency across Bundesliga, Champions League, and international fixtures over Yamal's emerging talent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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