The 2028 Democratic vice-presidential nomination market shows a fragmented field with no candidate exceeding low double-digit implied probability more than two years before primaries. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 9.5% on progressive visibility and national profile, followed by governors and senators such as Gretchen Whitmer and Elissa Slotkin who bring swing-state experience and moderate appeal. Key differentiators center on regional electoral strength, legislative records, and alignment with party priorities on economic policy and voter turnout. Consolidation behind one outcome would likely require a clear presidential frontrunner emerging from 2026 midterms or early primary polling, major endorsements, or shifts in coalition dynamics that narrow the presidential ticket math.