Ongoing transmission of Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 5,700 confirmed cases and roughly 2,800 deaths by late August 2026, marking the country's largest Ebola outbreak on record and prompting a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Despite rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%, the event remains regionally concentrated with no sustained community transmission outside Africa after isolated importations. Official assessments from CDC and WHO classify global risk as low, supported by improving contact tracing in affected zones, initiation of frontline vaccination, and containment of smaller linked clusters in Uganda and Europe. This containment trajectory underpins the market's 96% implied probability against pandemic status. A realistic shift would require substantially wider international seeding with secondary chains or a sharp acceleration in undetected spread exceeding current model projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% probabilità
$712,933 Vol.
$712,933 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$712,933 Vol.
$712,933 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing transmission of Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 5,700 confirmed cases and roughly 2,800 deaths by late August 2026, marking the country's largest Ebola outbreak on record and prompting a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Despite rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%, the event remains regionally concentrated with no sustained community transmission outside Africa after isolated importations. Official assessments from CDC and WHO classify global risk as low, supported by improving contact tracing in affected zones, initiation of frontline vaccination, and containment of smaller linked clusters in Uganda and Europe. This containment trajectory underpins the market's 96% implied probability against pandemic status. A realistic shift would require substantially wider international seeding with secondary chains or a sharp acceleration in undetected spread exceeding current model projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$712,933Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing transmission of Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 5,700 confirmed cases and roughly 2,800 deaths by late August 2026, marking the country's largest Ebola outbreak on record and prompting a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Despite rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%, the event remains regionally concentrated with no sustained community transmission outside Africa after isolated importations. Official assessments from CDC and WHO classify global risk as low, supported by improving contact tracing in affected zones, initiation of frontline vaccination, and containment of smaller linked clusters in Uganda and Europe. This containment trajectory underpins the market's 96% implied probability against pandemic status. A realistic shift would require substantially wider international seeding with secondary chains or a sharp acceleration in undetected spread exceeding current model projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$712,933Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ongoing transmission of Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has produced over 5,700 confirmed cases and roughly 2,800 deaths by late August 2026, marking the country's largest Ebola outbreak on record and prompting a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Despite rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces and a case fatality ratio near 48%, the event remains regionally concentrated with no sustained community transmission outside Africa after isolated importations. Official assessments from CDC and WHO classify global risk as low, supported by improving contact tracing in affected zones, initiation of frontline vaccination, and containment of smaller linked clusters in Uganda and Europe. This containment trajectory underpins the market's 96% implied probability against pandemic status. A realistic shift would require substantially wider international seeding with secondary chains or a sharp acceleration in undetected spread exceeding current model projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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