Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.4% implied probability reflects the regional scope of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, over 5,200 confirmed cases and roughly 2,478 deaths remain concentrated in remote areas, with Uganda's cluster contained after 20 cases. CDC and WHO assessments cite low international spread risk due to the virus's requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, absence of sustained urban transmission, and ongoing surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation efforts. While the May PHEIC declaration highlights local challenges from conflict and mobility, no evidence supports pandemic-level global dissemination. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to densely connected cities or changes in transmissibility, though current epidemiological data make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% probabilità
$699,054 Vol.
$699,054 Vol.
30 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$699,054 Vol.
$699,054 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.4% implied probability reflects the regional scope of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, over 5,200 confirmed cases and roughly 2,478 deaths remain concentrated in remote areas, with Uganda's cluster contained after 20 cases. CDC and WHO assessments cite low international spread risk due to the virus's requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, absence of sustained urban transmission, and ongoing surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation efforts. While the May PHEIC declaration highlights local challenges from conflict and mobility, no evidence supports pandemic-level global dissemination. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to densely connected cities or changes in transmissibility, though current epidemiological data make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$699,054Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.4% implied probability reflects the regional scope of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, over 5,200 confirmed cases and roughly 2,478 deaths remain concentrated in remote areas, with Uganda's cluster contained after 20 cases. CDC and WHO assessments cite low international spread risk due to the virus's requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, absence of sustained urban transmission, and ongoing surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation efforts. While the May PHEIC declaration highlights local challenges from conflict and mobility, no evidence supports pandemic-level global dissemination. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to densely connected cities or changes in transmissibility, though current epidemiological data make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$699,054Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.4% implied probability reflects the regional scope of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, over 5,200 confirmed cases and roughly 2,478 deaths remain concentrated in remote areas, with Uganda's cluster contained after 20 cases. CDC and WHO assessments cite low international spread risk due to the virus's requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, absence of sustained urban transmission, and ongoing surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation efforts. While the May PHEIC declaration highlights local challenges from conflict and mobility, no evidence supports pandemic-level global dissemination. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected exportation to densely connected cities or changes in transmissibility, though current epidemiological data make such outcomes unlikely before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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