Arsenal hold a narrow two-point lead atop the Premier League table with two matches remaining, positioning them to clinch their first title since 2004 by securing just one more victory. Recent results have swung momentum firmly in the Gunners' favor, including a late 1-0 win at West Ham and a dominant 3-0 victory over Fulham that restored their advantage after Manchester City briefly threatened with strong form and games in hand. City's rearranged fixture congestion through mid-May has limited their ability to close the gap, while Arsenal's superior recent results and control of their own destiny have shaped the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities. Goal difference remains a potential tiebreaker should both sides win out, but Arsenal's path to the title appears the more straightforward route based on the latest standings and form.