The United States enters Group D as co-host with a modest ranking edge and recent friendly wins over Australia and Paraguay, yet traders price them only slightly ahead of Türkiye due to the latter’s strong momentum from playoff qualification and attacking threats like Guler and Çalhanoğlu. Türkiye’s recent 1-0 victories and defensive organization create realistic upset potential across the three matchdays, while Paraguay’s organized backline and counter-attacking options position them as a credible spoiler despite lower rankings. Australia remains the longest shot, hampered by limited depth and tougher historical matchups, keeping the group winner market tight as each side’s form, travel demands, and injury recoveries could shift implied probabilities before the June kickoff.