Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 because most strains, including the Andes virus behind the contained May 2026 cruise-ship cluster, spread primarily through aerosolized rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human routes. Official CDC and WHO data confirm only 13 total cases and three deaths from that event, with transmission limited to prolonged close contact and no evidence of airborne efficiency or novel variants meeting epidemic thresholds. Historical surveillance shows sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases with case-fatality rates of 1–50% but no pandemic-scale community spread. A shift would require documented evolutionary changes toward efficient respiratory transmission or simultaneous large rodent-driven spillovers across regions before year-end—scenarios unsupported by current monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Pandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,854,543 Vol.
$17,854,543 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,854,543 Vol.
$17,854,543 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 because most strains, including the Andes virus behind the contained May 2026 cruise-ship cluster, spread primarily through aerosolized rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human routes. Official CDC and WHO data confirm only 13 total cases and three deaths from that event, with transmission limited to prolonged close contact and no evidence of airborne efficiency or novel variants meeting epidemic thresholds. Historical surveillance shows sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases with case-fatality rates of 1–50% but no pandemic-scale community spread. A shift would require documented evolutionary changes toward efficient respiratory transmission or simultaneous large rodent-driven spillovers across regions before year-end—scenarios unsupported by current monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,854,543Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 because most strains, including the Andes virus behind the contained May 2026 cruise-ship cluster, spread primarily through aerosolized rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human routes. Official CDC and WHO data confirm only 13 total cases and three deaths from that event, with transmission limited to prolonged close contact and no evidence of airborne efficiency or novel variants meeting epidemic thresholds. Historical surveillance shows sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases with case-fatality rates of 1–50% but no pandemic-scale community spread. A shift would require documented evolutionary changes toward efficient respiratory transmission or simultaneous large rodent-driven spillovers across regions before year-end—scenarios unsupported by current monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,854,543Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 because most strains, including the Andes virus behind the contained May 2026 cruise-ship cluster, spread primarily through aerosolized rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human routes. Official CDC and WHO data confirm only 13 total cases and three deaths from that event, with transmission limited to prolonged close contact and no evidence of airborne efficiency or novel variants meeting epidemic thresholds. Historical surveillance shows sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases with case-fatality rates of 1–50% but no pandemic-scale community spread. A shift would require documented evolutionary changes toward efficient respiratory transmission or simultaneous large rodent-driven spillovers across regions before year-end—scenarios unsupported by current monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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