Hantavirus transmission dynamics drive the 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Most strains, including the Andes virus linked to a limited May 2026 cruise-ship cluster of roughly eight to eleven confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human contact, which requires prolonged close exposure and remains rare. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no evidence of exponential growth or community spread beyond the initial group, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic HPS cases worldwide. While imported infections warrant continued monitoring through summer and fall, the absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission and rapid containment measures make widespread epidemic conditions highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Pandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,843,588 Vol.
$17,843,588 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,843,588 Vol.
$17,843,588 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hantavirus transmission dynamics drive the 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Most strains, including the Andes virus linked to a limited May 2026 cruise-ship cluster of roughly eight to eleven confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human contact, which requires prolonged close exposure and remains rare. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no evidence of exponential growth or community spread beyond the initial group, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic HPS cases worldwide. While imported infections warrant continued monitoring through summer and fall, the absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission and rapid containment measures make widespread epidemic conditions highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,843,588Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hantavirus transmission dynamics drive the 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Most strains, including the Andes virus linked to a limited May 2026 cruise-ship cluster of roughly eight to eleven confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human contact, which requires prolonged close exposure and remains rare. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no evidence of exponential growth or community spread beyond the initial group, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic HPS cases worldwide. While imported infections warrant continued monitoring through summer and fall, the absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission and rapid containment measures make widespread epidemic conditions highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,843,588Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hantavirus transmission dynamics drive the 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Most strains, including the Andes virus linked to a limited May 2026 cruise-ship cluster of roughly eight to eleven confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths, spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than sustained human-to-human contact, which requires prolonged close exposure and remains rare. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no evidence of exponential growth or community spread beyond the initial group, consistent with historical patterns of sporadic HPS cases worldwide. While imported infections warrant continued monitoring through summer and fall, the absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission and rapid containment measures make widespread epidemic conditions highly improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti