The market-implied 71% probability that the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude remains at or below 7.9 reflects the absence of any event exceeding the current maximum of 7.8 Mw recorded offshore the Philippines in June, according to USGS data, despite multiple magnitude 7+ quakes this year in subduction zones including Tonga, Venezuela, and Colombia. Tectonic settings capable of producing great earthquakes (8.0+) exist along major plate boundaries, yet the year’s observed distribution aligns with typical annual variability where magnitudes above 8 occur infrequently. With roughly four months remaining, updated seismic monitoring and any late-year activity in high-strain regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire could influence outcomes, though historical frequency and current model consensus support the leading bracket.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMassima magnitudo del terremoto nel 2026?
Massima magnitudo del terremoto nel 2026?
7,9 o inferiore 70%
8,0–8,1 11%
8,2 – 8,3 10%
8,6 – 8,7 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 gen 2027
7,9 o inferiore
70%
8,0–8,1
11%
8,2 – 8,3
10%
8,4 – 8,5
7%
8,6 – 8,7
9%
8,8 – 8,9
5%
9.0 o superiore
6%
7,9 o inferiore 70%
8,0–8,1 11%
8,2 – 8,3 10%
8,6 – 8,7 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 gen 2027
7,9 o inferiore
$124 Vol.
70%
8,0–8,1
$54 Vol.
11%
8,2 – 8,3
$69 Vol.
10%
8,4 – 8,5
$54 Vol.
7%
8,6 – 8,7
$74 Vol.
9%
8,8 – 8,9
$54 Vol.
5%
9.0 o superiore
$41 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 71% probability that the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude remains at or below 7.9 reflects the absence of any event exceeding the current maximum of 7.8 Mw recorded offshore the Philippines in June, according to USGS data, despite multiple magnitude 7+ quakes this year in subduction zones including Tonga, Venezuela, and Colombia. Tectonic settings capable of producing great earthquakes (8.0+) exist along major plate boundaries, yet the year’s observed distribution aligns with typical annual variability where magnitudes above 8 occur infrequently. With roughly four months remaining, updated seismic monitoring and any late-year activity in high-strain regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire could influence outcomes, though historical frequency and current model consensus support the leading bracket.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$371Data di fine
4 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 71% probability that the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude remains at or below 7.9 reflects the absence of any event exceeding the current maximum of 7.8 Mw recorded offshore the Philippines in June, according to USGS data, despite multiple magnitude 7+ quakes this year in subduction zones including Tonga, Venezuela, and Colombia. Tectonic settings capable of producing great earthquakes (8.0+) exist along major plate boundaries, yet the year’s observed distribution aligns with typical annual variability where magnitudes above 8 occur infrequently. With roughly four months remaining, updated seismic monitoring and any late-year activity in high-strain regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire could influence outcomes, though historical frequency and current model consensus support the leading bracket.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$371Data di fine
4 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied 71% probability that the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude remains at or below 7.9 reflects the absence of any event exceeding the current maximum of 7.8 Mw recorded offshore the Philippines in June, according to USGS data, despite multiple magnitude 7+ quakes this year in subduction zones including Tonga, Venezuela, and Colombia. Tectonic settings capable of producing great earthquakes (8.0+) exist along major plate boundaries, yet the year’s observed distribution aligns with typical annual variability where magnitudes above 8 occur infrequently. With roughly four months remaining, updated seismic monitoring and any late-year activity in high-strain regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire could influence outcomes, though historical frequency and current model consensus support the leading bracket.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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