The U.S. labor market has cooled into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium through the first four months of 2026, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent as of the April release and nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month. Subdued hiring, partly reflecting corporate caution over tariffs and reduced labor supply from immigration controls, has pushed the rate up from 4.0 percent a year earlier while elevating the share of long-term unemployed to levels last seen after the Great Recession. AI-driven productivity gains and displacement in routine roles are adding structural uncertainty, particularly for younger workers. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 and any FOMC signals on monetary policy will provide key data points that could influence trader views on whether the rate peaks near current levels or climbs higher by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$388,622 Vol.
10 gen 2026
5,0%
28%
5,5%
14%
6,0%
13%
7,0%
10%
10,0%
4%
$388,622 Vol.
5,0%
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5,5%
$186,661 Vol.
14%
6,0%
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7,0%
$21,510 Vol.
10%
10,0%
$25,993 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market has cooled into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium through the first four months of 2026, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent as of the April release and nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month. Subdued hiring, partly reflecting corporate caution over tariffs and reduced labor supply from immigration controls, has pushed the rate up from 4.0 percent a year earlier while elevating the share of long-term unemployed to levels last seen after the Great Recession. AI-driven productivity gains and displacement in routine roles are adding structural uncertainty, particularly for younger workers. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 and any FOMC signals on monetary policy will provide key data points that could influence trader views on whether the rate peaks near current levels or climbs higher by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$388,622Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market has cooled into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium through the first four months of 2026, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent as of the April release and nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month. Subdued hiring, partly reflecting corporate caution over tariffs and reduced labor supply from immigration controls, has pushed the rate up from 4.0 percent a year earlier while elevating the share of long-term unemployed to levels last seen after the Great Recession. AI-driven productivity gains and displacement in routine roles are adding structural uncertainty, particularly for younger workers. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 and any FOMC signals on monetary policy will provide key data points that could influence trader views on whether the rate peaks near current levels or climbs higher by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$388,622Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. labor market has cooled into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium through the first four months of 2026, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent as of the April release and nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month. Subdued hiring, partly reflecting corporate caution over tariffs and reduced labor supply from immigration controls, has pushed the rate up from 4.0 percent a year earlier while elevating the share of long-term unemployed to levels last seen after the Great Recession. AI-driven productivity gains and displacement in routine roles are adding structural uncertainty, particularly for younger workers. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 and any FOMC signals on monetary policy will provide key data points that could influence trader views on whether the rate peaks near current levels or climbs higher by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti