El Niño's rapid strengthening, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C, is elevating Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone formation and favoring westward tracks toward China, consistent with National Climate Center outlooks of 7–9 landfalls versus a roughly 7-storm climatological average. Multiple July systems, including Maysak and Noul, have already reached the coast, while model consensus points to continued above-normal genesis through peak season. Differentiation between a 7-storm total and greater-than-8 outcomes hinges on steering patterns from the subtropical ridge, South China Sea versus Philippine Sea genesis rates, and late-season recurvature risk; any shift in these variables or forecast revisions could narrow the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti cicloni tropicali arriveranno in Cina nel 2026?
Quanti cicloni tropicali arriveranno in Cina nel 2026?
7 23%
6 22%
5 19%
8 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2027
Meno di 5
4%
5
19%
6
16%
7
31%
8
11%
Più di 8
27%
7 23%
6 22%
5 19%
8 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2027
Meno di 5
$332 Vol.
4%
5
$1,747 Vol.
19%
6
$572 Vol.
16%
7
$306 Vol.
31%
8
$142 Vol.
11%
Più di 8
$276 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).El Niño's rapid strengthening, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C, is elevating Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone formation and favoring westward tracks toward China, consistent with National Climate Center outlooks of 7–9 landfalls versus a roughly 7-storm climatological average. Multiple July systems, including Maysak and Noul, have already reached the coast, while model consensus points to continued above-normal genesis through peak season. Differentiation between a 7-storm total and greater-than-8 outcomes hinges on steering patterns from the subtropical ridge, South China Sea versus Philippine Sea genesis rates, and late-season recurvature risk; any shift in these variables or forecast revisions could narrow the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Mercato aperto: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,376Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).El Niño's rapid strengthening, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C, is elevating Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone formation and favoring westward tracks toward China, consistent with National Climate Center outlooks of 7–9 landfalls versus a roughly 7-storm climatological average. Multiple July systems, including Maysak and Noul, have already reached the coast, while model consensus points to continued above-normal genesis through peak season. Differentiation between a 7-storm total and greater-than-8 outcomes hinges on steering patterns from the subtropical ridge, South China Sea versus Philippine Sea genesis rates, and late-season recurvature risk; any shift in these variables or forecast revisions could narrow the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$3,376Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño's rapid strengthening, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C, is elevating Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone formation and favoring westward tracks toward China, consistent with National Climate Center outlooks of 7–9 landfalls versus a roughly 7-storm climatological average. Multiple July systems, including Maysak and Noul, have already reached the coast, while model consensus points to continued above-normal genesis through peak season. Differentiation between a 7-storm total and greater-than-8 outcomes hinges on steering patterns from the subtropical ridge, South China Sea versus Philippine Sea genesis rates, and late-season recurvature risk; any shift in these variables or forecast revisions could narrow the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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