David Roth holds a commanding lead in the Idaho Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Jim Risch, with the May 19 vote just days away. Roth's prior runs for federal office, including as the party's 2022 nominee, have given him broader name recognition and organizational experience in a low-turnout contest where Democratic voters are few. The two challengers, Nickolas Bonds and Brad Moore, lack comparable visibility or recent campaign infrastructure. An editorial endorsement from a major state newspaper further reinforced Roth's position. Traders price the outcome as highly likely to hold, though an unusually strong late mobilization by one of the other candidates remains a narrow path to an upset before ballots are cast.