Recent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with the RBI’s August 2026 monetary policy update revising its FY27 average inflation forecast to 5.0% (with a Q3 peak of 5.9%), have anchored trader expectations firmly above 4.5%. Unfavorable base effects, elevated food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a weaker rupee have driven the sequential rise, while core inflation remains contained near 4.3%. These developments, alongside OECD projections of 4.8% for FY2026-27, reinforce market-implied odds of 79.5% for the 4.50%+ band by highlighting persistent supply-side pressures that outweigh any near-term moderation signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.9%
3,00% - 3,74% 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
1%
2,25% a 2,99%
1%
3,00% - 3,74%
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
13%
4,50%+
80%
4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.9%
3,00% - 3,74% 3.0%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
$1,769 Vol.
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$1,265 Vol.
1%
2,25% a 2,99%
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3,00% - 3,74%
$2,081 Vol.
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
$29,492 Vol.
13%
4,50%+
$17,238 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with the RBI’s August 2026 monetary policy update revising its FY27 average inflation forecast to 5.0% (with a Q3 peak of 5.9%), have anchored trader expectations firmly above 4.5%. Unfavorable base effects, elevated food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a weaker rupee have driven the sequential rise, while core inflation remains contained near 4.3%. These developments, alongside OECD projections of 4.8% for FY2026-27, reinforce market-implied odds of 79.5% for the 4.50%+ band by highlighting persistent supply-side pressures that outweigh any near-term moderation signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$78,025Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with the RBI’s August 2026 monetary policy update revising its FY27 average inflation forecast to 5.0% (with a Q3 peak of 5.9%), have anchored trader expectations firmly above 4.5%. Unfavorable base effects, elevated food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a weaker rupee have driven the sequential rise, while core inflation remains contained near 4.3%. These developments, alongside OECD projections of 4.8% for FY2026-27, reinforce market-implied odds of 79.5% for the 4.50%+ band by highlighting persistent supply-side pressures that outweigh any near-term moderation signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$78,025Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with the RBI’s August 2026 monetary policy update revising its FY27 average inflation forecast to 5.0% (with a Q3 peak of 5.9%), have anchored trader expectations firmly above 4.5%. Unfavorable base effects, elevated food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a weaker rupee have driven the sequential rise, while core inflation remains contained near 4.3%. These developments, alongside OECD projections of 4.8% for FY2026-27, reinforce market-implied odds of 79.5% for the 4.50%+ band by highlighting persistent supply-side pressures that outweigh any near-term moderation signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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