Polymarket traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% for the 12 months ending December 2026, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projections of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with a Q3 peak at 5.2% amid escalating food and energy pressures. April's CPI print rose to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly increase—fueled by 4.20% food inflation from vegetable spikes, while upside risks from West Asia oil disruptions and El Niño weather harden the outlook. Lower bins trail due to this sustained upward trajectory, with May CPI and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,50%+ 81%
3,00% - 3,74% 7.6%
2,25% a 2,99% 7.3%
<0,75% 4.0%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
3%
1,50% a 2,24%
3%
2,25% a 2,99%
7%
3,00% - 3,74%
8%
3,75% a 4,49%
1%
4,50%+
81%
4,50%+ 81%
3,00% - 3,74% 7.6%
2,25% a 2,99% 7.3%
<0,75% 4.0%
$60,464 Vol.
$60,464 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
$806 Vol.
4%
0,75% a 1,49%
$525 Vol.
3%
1,50% a 2,24%
$415 Vol.
3%
2,25% a 2,99%
$23,739 Vol.
7%
3,00% - 3,74%
$517 Vol.
8%
3,75% a 4,49%
$23,208 Vol.
1%
4,50%+
$11,254 Vol.
81%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% for the 12 months ending December 2026, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projections of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with a Q3 peak at 5.2% amid escalating food and energy pressures. April's CPI print rose to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly increase—fueled by 4.20% food inflation from vegetable spikes, while upside risks from West Asia oil disruptions and El Niño weather harden the outlook. Lower bins trail due to this sustained upward trajectory, with May CPI and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,464Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% for the 12 months ending December 2026, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projections of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with a Q3 peak at 5.2% amid escalating food and energy pressures. April's CPI print rose to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly increase—fueled by 4.20% food inflation from vegetable spikes, while upside risks from West Asia oil disruptions and El Niño weather harden the outlook. Lower bins trail due to this sustained upward trajectory, with May CPI and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$60,464Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% for the 12 months ending December 2026, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projections of 4.6% average CPI for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027), with a Q3 peak at 5.2% amid escalating food and energy pressures. April's CPI print rose to 3.48% year-over-year—the sixth consecutive monthly increase—fueled by 4.20% food inflation from vegetable spikes, while upside risks from West Asia oil disruptions and El Niño weather harden the outlook. Lower bins trail due to this sustained upward trajectory, with May CPI and June MPC as key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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