Mojtaba Khamenei has held the position of Supreme Leader since his selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes. Trader consensus on low near-term change probabilities reflects the Assembly's rapid appointment of the successor, formation of a transitional leadership council involving the president, judiciary chief, and senior clerics, and subsequent official statements affirming Mojtaba's authority and health through private consultations with military and political figures. Ongoing conflict has reinforced institutional continuity under IRGC influence, with no verified removals, resignations, or power shifts reported through late 2026. Potential catalysts include further escalation, health developments, or internal Assembly disputes, though current pricing incorporates the system's demonstrated resilience during wartime transition.