Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. The Assembly of Experts then selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor in a March vote, activating constitutional interim mechanisms and installing a three-member council beforehand. The regime has endured the war with a younger, harder-line cadre of IRGC figures gaining prominence, though Mojtaba’s limited public role and reported injuries have sustained questions about continuity. Trader assessments reflect these confirmed events alongside risks from ongoing regional tensions, potential further personnel shifts, and the Assembly of Experts’ ongoing influence over any future adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$23,458,602 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
<1%
22 agosto
1%
31 agosto
2%
30 settembre
6%
31 ottobre
10%
30 novembre
13%
31 dicembre
18%
30 giugno 2027
26%
$23,458,602 Vol.
15 agosto
$59,959 Vol.
<1%
22 agosto
$23,089 Vol.
1%
31 agosto
$1,145,412 Vol.
2%
30 settembre
$438,312 Vol.
6%
31 ottobre
$8,752 Vol.
10%
30 novembre
$8,928 Vol.
13%
31 dicembre
$3,990,939 Vol.
18%
30 giugno 2027
$236,835 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. The Assembly of Experts then selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor in a March vote, activating constitutional interim mechanisms and installing a three-member council beforehand. The regime has endured the war with a younger, harder-line cadre of IRGC figures gaining prominence, though Mojtaba’s limited public role and reported injuries have sustained questions about continuity. Trader assessments reflect these confirmed events alongside risks from ongoing regional tensions, potential further personnel shifts, and the Assembly of Experts’ ongoing influence over any future adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,458,602Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. The Assembly of Experts then selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor in a March vote, activating constitutional interim mechanisms and installing a three-member council beforehand. The regime has endured the war with a younger, harder-line cadre of IRGC figures gaining prominence, though Mojtaba’s limited public role and reported injuries have sustained questions about continuity. Trader assessments reflect these confirmed events alongside risks from ongoing regional tensions, potential further personnel shifts, and the Assembly of Experts’ ongoing influence over any future adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,458,602Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a major transition in early 2026 when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. The Assembly of Experts then selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor in a March vote, activating constitutional interim mechanisms and installing a three-member council beforehand. The regime has endured the war with a younger, harder-line cadre of IRGC figures gaining prominence, though Mojtaba’s limited public role and reported injuries have sustained questions about continuity. Trader assessments reflect these confirmed events alongside risks from ongoing regional tensions, potential further personnel shifts, and the Assembly of Experts’ ongoing influence over any future adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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