Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries from a recent US-Israeli airstrike, marking his prolonged absence from public view since early May 2026, amid conflicting regime claims of minor wounds versus foreign intelligence assessments of severe facial burns and a needed prosthetic leg. This follows his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's assassination, ushering in collective leadership with expanded Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) influence and internal power struggles. Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including stalled diplomatic responses and escalation risks, heighten uncertainty, while rumors of incapacity could trigger Assembly intervention or no-confidence dynamics before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$13,555,856 Vol.
31 mag 2026
31 maggio
6%
30 giugno
14%
31 dicembre
35%
$13,555,856 Vol.
31 maggio
$1,906,752 Vol.
6%
30 giugno
$1,064,603 Vol.
14%
31 dicembre
$2,388,735 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries from a recent US-Israeli airstrike, marking his prolonged absence from public view since early May 2026, amid conflicting regime claims of minor wounds versus foreign intelligence assessments of severe facial burns and a needed prosthetic leg. This follows his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's assassination, ushering in collective leadership with expanded Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) influence and internal power struggles. Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including stalled diplomatic responses and escalation risks, heighten uncertainty, while rumors of incapacity could trigger Assembly intervention or no-confidence dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$13,555,856Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries from a recent US-Israeli airstrike, marking his prolonged absence from public view since early May 2026, amid conflicting regime claims of minor wounds versus foreign intelligence assessments of severe facial burns and a needed prosthetic leg. This follows his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's assassination, ushering in collective leadership with expanded Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) influence and internal power struggles. Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including stalled diplomatic responses and escalation risks, heighten uncertainty, while rumors of incapacity could trigger Assembly intervention or no-confidence dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,555,856Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change hinges on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries from a recent US-Israeli airstrike, marking his prolonged absence from public view since early May 2026, amid conflicting regime claims of minor wounds versus foreign intelligence assessments of severe facial burns and a needed prosthetic leg. This follows his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's assassination, ushering in collective leadership with expanded Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) influence and internal power struggles. Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including stalled diplomatic responses and escalation risks, heighten uncertainty, while rumors of incapacity could trigger Assembly intervention or no-confidence dynamics before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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