The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$13,708,081 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 maggio
7%
30 giugno
13%
31 dicembre
34%
$13,708,081 Vol.
31 maggio
$2,013,159 Vol.
7%
30 giugno
$1,099,943 Vol.
13%
31 dicembre
$2,399,098 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$13,708,081Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,708,081Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor within days, preserving the theocratic framework. Mojtaba's continued absence from public appearances and negotiations has fueled speculation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now wields greater day-to-day authority through figures like Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi. This consolidation has limited further immediate leadership turnover, though ongoing diplomatic talks, internal factional pressures, and the need for formal confirmation processes could still introduce shifts before year-end deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects these institutional continuities alongside risks of escalation or elite realignments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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