**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$22,467,209 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 agosto
3%
30 settembre
6%
31 dicembre
16%
30 giugno 2027
23%
$22,467,209 Vol.
31 agosto
$652,102 Vol.
3%
30 settembre
$329,296 Vol.
6%
31 dicembre
$3,748,705 Vol.
16%
30 giugno 2027
$190,729 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$22,467,209Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,467,209Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed other senior officials.** The younger Khamenei, selected amid wartime conditions, has maintained a low public profile with reports of injuries, fueling speculation about his health and effective authority. Power appears concentrated with the IRGC while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in a subordinate role, and Tehran has emphasized leadership unity against external narratives of division. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the post-succession consolidation, persistent external military and sanctions pressure under the Trump administration, economic strains, and limited visible elite fractures or public challenges. Longer-term probabilities incorporate constitutional succession mechanisms via the Assembly of Experts, potential health or political triggers, and risks of further escalation or negotiated stabilization through mid-2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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