The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, activating constitutional provisions for an interim council beforehand. Mojtaba has issued only written statements since taking office and remains absent from public appearances, fueling speculation over his health and effective control amid reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. This vacuum has elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a dominant force in governance and security decisions. Ongoing military operations, domestic economic strain, and competing institutional influences continue to shape the likelihood of additional leadership shifts through the end of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$13,664,349 Vol.
31 mag 2026
31 maggio
6%
30 giugno
13%
31 dicembre
34%
$13,664,349 Vol.
31 maggio
$1,986,348 Vol.
6%
30 giugno
$1,086,731 Vol.
13%
31 dicembre
$2,395,389 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, activating constitutional provisions for an interim council beforehand. Mojtaba has issued only written statements since taking office and remains absent from public appearances, fueling speculation over his health and effective control amid reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. This vacuum has elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a dominant force in governance and security decisions. Ongoing military operations, domestic economic strain, and competing institutional influences continue to shape the likelihood of additional leadership shifts through the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$13,664,349Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, activating constitutional provisions for an interim council beforehand. Mojtaba has issued only written statements since taking office and remains absent from public appearances, fueling speculation over his health and effective control amid reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. This vacuum has elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a dominant force in governance and security decisions. Ongoing military operations, domestic economic strain, and competing institutional influences continue to shape the likelihood of additional leadership shifts through the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,664,349Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, activating constitutional provisions for an interim council beforehand. Mojtaba has issued only written statements since taking office and remains absent from public appearances, fueling speculation over his health and effective control amid reports of injuries sustained in the conflict. This vacuum has elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a dominant force in governance and security decisions. Ongoing military operations, domestic economic strain, and competing institutional influences continue to shape the likelihood of additional leadership shifts through the end of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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