The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity and drove trader consensus toward stability through year-end absent major shocks. Mojtaba's limited public profile has fueled ongoing health and capacity questions, while IRGC influence has grown amid wartime leadership reshuffles. Key variables that could alter odds include further escalations in regional conflicts, internal power maneuvers, or Assembly interventions before any resolution deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$23,608,867 Vol.
30 set 2026
22 agosto
<1%
31 agosto
1%
30 settembre
5%
31 ottobre
8%
30 novembre
11%
31 dicembre
17%
30 giugno 2027
26%
$23,608,867 Vol.
22 agosto
$58,081 Vol.
<1%
31 agosto
$1,177,295 Vol.
1%
30 settembre
$464,388 Vol.
5%
31 ottobre
$13,961 Vol.
8%
30 novembre
$12,278 Vol.
11%
31 dicembre
$4,033,476 Vol.
17%
30 giugno 2027
$241,196 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity and drove trader consensus toward stability through year-end absent major shocks. Mojtaba's limited public profile has fueled ongoing health and capacity questions, while IRGC influence has grown amid wartime leadership reshuffles. Key variables that could alter odds include further escalations in regional conflicts, internal power maneuvers, or Assembly interventions before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$23,608,867Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity and drove trader consensus toward stability through year-end absent major shocks. Mojtaba's limited public profile has fueled ongoing health and capacity questions, while IRGC influence has grown amid wartime leadership reshuffles. Key variables that could alter odds include further escalations in regional conflicts, internal power maneuvers, or Assembly interventions before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,608,867Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity and drove trader consensus toward stability through year-end absent major shocks. Mojtaba's limited public profile has fueled ongoing health and capacity questions, while IRGC influence has grown amid wartime leadership reshuffles. Key variables that could alter odds include further escalations in regional conflicts, internal power maneuvers, or Assembly interventions before any resolution deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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