Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a commanding position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, with traders assigning an 81 percent probability to a Republican victory that reflects the state's longstanding partisan alignment and Marshall's established record. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and recent statewide results, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, underscore consistent Republican advantages in turnout and voter registration. A crowded Democratic primary scheduled for August 4 has yet to coalesce around a single, well-funded challenger, limiting any immediate threat. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, consistent with Marshall's double-digit leads in early general-election polling against leading opponents. While the November general election remains months away, structural factors such as legislative majorities and historical voting patterns continue to anchor market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$28,102 Vol.
$28,102 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
80%
Democratico
19%
$28,102 Vol.
$28,102 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
$16,846 Vol.
80%
Democratico
$11,256 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a commanding position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, with traders assigning an 81 percent probability to a Republican victory that reflects the state's longstanding partisan alignment and Marshall's established record. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and recent statewide results, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, underscore consistent Republican advantages in turnout and voter registration. A crowded Democratic primary scheduled for August 4 has yet to coalesce around a single, well-funded challenger, limiting any immediate threat. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, consistent with Marshall's double-digit leads in early general-election polling against leading opponents. While the November general election remains months away, structural factors such as legislative majorities and historical voting patterns continue to anchor market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$28,102Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a commanding position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, with traders assigning an 81 percent probability to a Republican victory that reflects the state's longstanding partisan alignment and Marshall's established record. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and recent statewide results, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, underscore consistent Republican advantages in turnout and voter registration. A crowded Democratic primary scheduled for August 4 has yet to coalesce around a single, well-funded challenger, limiting any immediate threat. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, consistent with Marshall's double-digit leads in early general-election polling against leading opponents. While the November general election remains months away, structural factors such as legislative majorities and historical voting patterns continue to anchor market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$28,102Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a commanding position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, with traders assigning an 81 percent probability to a Republican victory that reflects the state's longstanding partisan alignment and Marshall's established record. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and recent statewide results, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, underscore consistent Republican advantages in turnout and voter registration. A crowded Democratic primary scheduled for August 4 has yet to coalesce around a single, well-funded challenger, limiting any immediate threat. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican, consistent with Marshall's double-digit leads in early general-election polling against leading opponents. While the November general election remains months away, structural factors such as legislative majorities and historical voting patterns continue to anchor market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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