**The overwhelming market consensus on a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects the National Snow and Ice Data Center confirmation that the 2026 seasonal low reached 4.60 million sq km on September 12.** This value sits squarely in the post-2007 range and ties for tenth lowest in the satellite record since 1979, consistent with the long-term decline driven by thinner, younger ice from anthropogenic warming. A relatively cool Arctic Ocean summer limited extreme melt, yet persistent low concentrations and open water near the pole—exacerbated by late rapid loss in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas—kept extent low. Different satellite products show minor variations, but NSIDC data anchors the outcome. Late-season storms or measurement revisions remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift the final assessment, though the window has largely closed.