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icon for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Elezioni·Missouri

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

icon for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Elezioni·Missouri

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Bush 16%+ 43%

Bush 12–16% 43%

Bush 8–12% 43%

Bush 4–8% 43%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Bush 16%+ 43%

Bush 12–16% 43%

Bush 8–12% 43%

Bush 4–8% 43%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Bush 16%+

$0 Vol.

43%

Bush 12–16%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bush 8–12%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bush 4–8%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bush <4%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bell <4%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bell 4–8%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bell 8–12%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bell 12–16%

$0 Vol.

43%

Bell 16%+

$0 Vol.

43%

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
4 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
4 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 10 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Bush 16%+" a 43%, seguito da "Bush 12–16%" a 43%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 43¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 43% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 26, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory", esplora i 10 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" è "Bush 16%+" a 43%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 43% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Bush 12–16%" a 43%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.