Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in a February strike, yet he has maintained a prolonged absence from public view amid reports of injuries sustained in the attack. State media have issued occasional undated videos and images to address health speculation and demonstrate his involvement in meetings with officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, while diplomatic and security sources cite security concerns as a factor in his limited visibility. Trader probabilities remain modest for near-term resolution—around 18% by late August and 40% by year-end—reflecting the pattern of private confirmations without independently verified recent public appearances or addresses. Ongoing regional tensions and potential leadership signaling could influence future visibility ahead of scheduled dates.