Trader consensus assigns just a 1.3% chance of NATO dissolution before 2027 due to the alliance's entrenched treaty framework, Article 5 mutual-defense commitments, and recent enlargements that added Finland and Sweden as members. Sustained coordination among the 32 allies on support for Ukraine and deterrence against Russia has produced no credible withdrawal signals or formal dissolution proposals from any capital. Institutional requirements for unanimous consent further raise the bar for rapid breakup. Late-breaking shifts, such as a major U.S. policy pivot, a successful no-confidence cascade among European governments, or an unprecedented diplomatic rupture, remain the only plausible pathways that could still move the market before the resolution window closes.