Trader consensus favoring "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, despite multiple moderate incidents this year. Official monitoring through mid-August shows a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread flooding in Asia and the Americas, and U.S. billion-dollar severe storms and heat waves, yet none have escalated to historically rare catastrophic levels. Climate patterns, including ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions and typical hurricane season activity, align with baseline probabilities that such outliers remain uncommon by year-end. New seismic and volcanic data releases from USGS and similar agencies will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
20% probabilità
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
20% probabilità
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, despite multiple moderate incidents this year. Official monitoring through mid-August shows a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread flooding in Asia and the Americas, and U.S. billion-dollar severe storms and heat waves, yet none have escalated to historically rare catastrophic levels. Climate patterns, including ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions and typical hurricane season activity, align with baseline probabilities that such outliers remain uncommon by year-end. New seismic and volcanic data releases from USGS and similar agencies will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,641Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, despite multiple moderate incidents this year. Official monitoring through mid-August shows a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread flooding in Asia and the Americas, and U.S. billion-dollar severe storms and heat waves, yet none have escalated to historically rare catastrophic levels. Climate patterns, including ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions and typical hurricane season activity, align with baseline probabilities that such outliers remain uncommon by year-end. New seismic and volcanic data releases from USGS and similar agencies will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,641Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the lack of extreme events meeting typical resolution thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, despite multiple moderate incidents this year. Official monitoring through mid-August shows a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread flooding in Asia and the Americas, and U.S. billion-dollar severe storms and heat waves, yet none have escalated to historically rare catastrophic levels. Climate patterns, including ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions and typical hurricane season activity, align with baseline probabilities that such outliers remain uncommon by year-end. New seismic and volcanic data releases from USGS and similar agencies will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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