The heavy tilt toward a U.S. team at 89 percent implied probability stems from the deep concentration of elite American-based clubs still alive in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs. Colorado and Carolina have dominated early rounds with superior depth, strong goaltending, and favorable matchups, while Vegas continues its strong run. Only the Montreal Canadiens represent a realistic Canadian threat after early exits for Edmonton and other Canadian sides, and they face a challenging second-round series against Buffalo. Traders have priced in this structural advantage in roster quality and recent form, though an extended Montreal surge could still shift sentiment before the conference finals.