APC maintains a commanding position in the Nigerian Senate with roughly 70–88 seats following recent defections from PDP and LP members and by-election gains confirmed by INEC. This structural edge, combined with the ruling party’s control of most state governorships and fielding of candidates across all 109 districts for the January 2027 elections, underpins the 73.5% trader consensus. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with PDP at 11.5% and smaller groups like ADC, NDC, LP, and NNPP showing minimal implied support amid failed coalition efforts. Fresh developments, including the September 2026 clearance of over 1,300 candidates and ongoing defections that pushed APC near a two-thirds majority, reinforce expectations of continued dominance absent major shifts before polling.