Alex Smalley's surprising two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink Golf Club has driven his 17.1% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds responding to his strong ball-striking and putting in the third major of the season. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy sit closely behind at 14.7%, 13.7%, and 12.1% respectively because all three remain within striking distance on the leaderboard with one round left, creating a tight race among proven major winners and in-form contenders. Scottie Scheffler's poor third-round stumble has dropped him sharply in the market, underscoring how quickly final-round positioning reshapes probabilities in a PGA Championship where course management and recent momentum at the venue often decide outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAlex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.6%
Rory McIlroy 12.1%
$5,711,292 Vol.
$5,711,292 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Nick Taylor
5%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.6%
Rory McIlroy 12.1%
$5,711,292 Vol.
$5,711,292 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Nick Taylor
5%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley's surprising two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink Golf Club has driven his 17.1% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds responding to his strong ball-striking and putting in the third major of the season. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy sit closely behind at 14.7%, 13.7%, and 12.1% respectively because all three remain within striking distance on the leaderboard with one round left, creating a tight race among proven major winners and in-form contenders. Scottie Scheffler's poor third-round stumble has dropped him sharply in the market, underscoring how quickly final-round positioning reshapes probabilities in a PGA Championship where course management and recent momentum at the venue often decide outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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