The Reserve Bank of Australia's May 5 decision to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, its third consecutive hike, has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the June 16 meeting, where the 81 percent implied probability of no change reflects the central bank's updated May Statement on Monetary Policy. That outlook projects headline inflation peaking near 4.8 percent in the June quarter before easing, driven by elevated March CPI at 4.6 percent year-over-year and trimmed-mean inflation around 3.3 to 3.5 percent amid Middle East-related oil price pressures. Steady unemployment near 4.3 percent and resilient labor demand have kept downside risks contained, while Governor Michele Bullock's emphasis on data dependence and ASX futures pricing only a 13 to 17 percent chance of a further increase reinforce the current consensus. April CPI and employment releases due before mid-June remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.