**Spain's snap general election on November 29, 2026, follows Pedro Sánchez's early dissolution of parliament, creating a polarized contest that traders link to elevated turnout.** Recent polling averages project a PP lead, with PP-Vox coalitions frequently reaching absolute majorities, while PSOE trails. Analysts and sociologists cite heightened mobilization on the right, public fatigue with the incumbent government, and a larger electorate—including 1.6 million new voters and expanded overseas rolls—as factors pushing estimates toward 74%, the highest since 2004. Historical averages hover near 72%, with the 2023 election at 70.4%. The tight spread across 62-70%+ bins reflects uncertainty over final mobilization differentials between blocs, campaign intensity through late November, and how decisive the contest feels to voters in the closing weeks.