Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Fine settimana di apertura al botteghino
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Fine settimana di apertura al botteghino
260-280 milioni 40.0%
240-260 milioni 22.9%
200-220 milioni 15%
220-240 milioni 14%
$32,071 Vol.
$32,071 Vol.
2 ago 2026
<200 milioni
7%
200-220 milioni
15%
220-240 milioni
14%
240-260 milioni
23%
260-280 milioni
30%
>280 milioni
4%
260-280 milioni 40.0%
240-260 milioni 22.9%
200-220 milioni 15%
220-240 milioni 14%
$32,071 Vol.
$32,071 Vol.
2 ago 2026
<200 milioni
$5,228 Vol.
7%
200-220 milioni
$6,095 Vol.
15%
220-240 milioni
$6,032 Vol.
14%
240-260 milioni
$7,037 Vol.
23%
260-280 milioni
$4,380 Vol.
30%
>280 milioni
$3,300 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$32,071Data di fine
2 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$32,071Data di fine
2 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 11:35 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent trailer releases have sharpened focus on *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*’s July 31 domestic bow, with early tracking and industry estimates clustering near $195–220 million amid a post-pandemic economy and a fresh narrative reset rather than multiverse nostalgia. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to sub-$200 million because comparable solo Spider-Man launches and current presale momentum point to tempered rather than blockbuster debuts, while the tight cluster around $200–260 million brackets reflects uncertainty over how strongly marketing and word-of-mouth will convert amid competition from other summer tentpoles. Presales opening in the coming weeks and any late shifts in critical or audience sentiment remain the key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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