SpaceX’s Version 3 Starships, equipped with androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, position the program for an orbital rendezvous and refueling demonstration following Flight 13’s July 2026 success with engine relight and intact reentry. Traders see low 2026 odds because the propellant transfer test requires sequential orbital launches, extended mission duration, and FAA clearances that remain pending after recent suborbital flights. Flight 14, targeting mid-to-late September with Starlink V3 deployment and potential orbital insertion, plus Flight 15’s tower catch rehearsal, represent near-term catalysts that could accelerate or delay the first stable ship-to-ship docking in low Earth orbit. Competitive pressure from NASA’s Artemis refueling needs and SpaceX’s iterative cadence provide the main upside drivers, though typical development slips keep 2027 the more realistic window for market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
$70,296 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre 2026
3%
31 dicembre 2027
53%
$70,296 Vol.
31 dicembre 2026
$46,234 Vol.
3%
31 dicembre 2027
$24,063 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX’s Version 3 Starships, equipped with androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, position the program for an orbital rendezvous and refueling demonstration following Flight 13’s July 2026 success with engine relight and intact reentry. Traders see low 2026 odds because the propellant transfer test requires sequential orbital launches, extended mission duration, and FAA clearances that remain pending after recent suborbital flights. Flight 14, targeting mid-to-late September with Starlink V3 deployment and potential orbital insertion, plus Flight 15’s tower catch rehearsal, represent near-term catalysts that could accelerate or delay the first stable ship-to-ship docking in low Earth orbit. Competitive pressure from NASA’s Artemis refueling needs and SpaceX’s iterative cadence provide the main upside drivers, though typical development slips keep 2027 the more realistic window for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$70,296Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX’s Version 3 Starships, equipped with androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, position the program for an orbital rendezvous and refueling demonstration following Flight 13’s July 2026 success with engine relight and intact reentry. Traders see low 2026 odds because the propellant transfer test requires sequential orbital launches, extended mission duration, and FAA clearances that remain pending after recent suborbital flights. Flight 14, targeting mid-to-late September with Starlink V3 deployment and potential orbital insertion, plus Flight 15’s tower catch rehearsal, represent near-term catalysts that could accelerate or delay the first stable ship-to-ship docking in low Earth orbit. Competitive pressure from NASA’s Artemis refueling needs and SpaceX’s iterative cadence provide the main upside drivers, though typical development slips keep 2027 the more realistic window for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,296Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...SpaceX’s Version 3 Starships, equipped with androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, position the program for an orbital rendezvous and refueling demonstration following Flight 13’s July 2026 success with engine relight and intact reentry. Traders see low 2026 odds because the propellant transfer test requires sequential orbital launches, extended mission duration, and FAA clearances that remain pending after recent suborbital flights. Flight 14, targeting mid-to-late September with Starlink V3 deployment and potential orbital insertion, plus Flight 15’s tower catch rehearsal, represent near-term catalysts that could accelerate or delay the first stable ship-to-ship docking in low Earth orbit. Competitive pressure from NASA’s Artemis refueling needs and SpaceX’s iterative cadence provide the main upside drivers, though typical development slips keep 2027 the more realistic window for market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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