The Justice Department’s recent preparations to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro have driven trader sentiment, with reports indicating imminent action tied to his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdowns. Under the current administration, this step forms part of intensified diplomatic and economic pressure on Cuba, including sanctions and public threats of further measures. While grand jury approval remains required before charges can be unsealed, potentially as early as mid-May, the confirmed planning and official statements have elevated the implied probability of federal charges to the mid-60s. Historical precedents for indicting foreign officials in similar airspace incidents, combined with the absence of major legal obstacles cited so far, support the current market positioning.