Viktor Orbán’s decisive loss in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election ended his 16-year tenure as prime minister, shifting him to opposition leader of Fidesz while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority. Subsequent anti-corruption probes, including July raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to National Cultural Fund grant misuse, have produced charges against several former officials but no arrest warrants or indictments against Orbán himself. The new government has prioritized institutional reforms, EU fund recovery, and asset-recovery mechanisms over personal prosecutions, with legal experts finding no procedural irregularities in ongoing cases. Orbán remains politically active, framing investigations as partisan while facing no immediate barriers to continued public engagement through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest by December 31 is unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
10% probabilità
$31,572 Vol.
$31,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
10% probabilità
$31,572 Vol.
$31,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán’s decisive loss in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election ended his 16-year tenure as prime minister, shifting him to opposition leader of Fidesz while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority. Subsequent anti-corruption probes, including July raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to National Cultural Fund grant misuse, have produced charges against several former officials but no arrest warrants or indictments against Orbán himself. The new government has prioritized institutional reforms, EU fund recovery, and asset-recovery mechanisms over personal prosecutions, with legal experts finding no procedural irregularities in ongoing cases. Orbán remains politically active, framing investigations as partisan while facing no immediate barriers to continued public engagement through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest by December 31 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$31,572Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán’s decisive loss in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election ended his 16-year tenure as prime minister, shifting him to opposition leader of Fidesz while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority. Subsequent anti-corruption probes, including July raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to National Cultural Fund grant misuse, have produced charges against several former officials but no arrest warrants or indictments against Orbán himself. The new government has prioritized institutional reforms, EU fund recovery, and asset-recovery mechanisms over personal prosecutions, with legal experts finding no procedural irregularities in ongoing cases. Orbán remains politically active, framing investigations as partisan while facing no immediate barriers to continued public engagement through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest by December 31 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,572Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán’s decisive loss in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election ended his 16-year tenure as prime minister, shifting him to opposition leader of Fidesz while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority. Subsequent anti-corruption probes, including July raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to National Cultural Fund grant misuse, have produced charges against several former officials but no arrest warrants or indictments against Orbán himself. The new government has prioritized institutional reforms, EU fund recovery, and asset-recovery mechanisms over personal prosecutions, with legal experts finding no procedural irregularities in ongoing cases. Orbán remains politically active, framing investigations as partisan while facing no immediate barriers to continued public engagement through year-end. These factors underpin trader consensus that arrest by December 31 is unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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