Traders place a 58% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting measured expectations for large language model progress amid typical release cycles and benchmark saturation. Anthropic leads at 37% implied odds, supported by Claude models' strong recent performance in capability demonstrations and competitive positioning against other frontier labs. Google sits at 10.5% on the back of Gemini updates and infrastructure scaling, while OpenAI and xAI remain below 3% each despite ongoing training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and model releases later this year represent the main near-term swing factors that could shift these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
Nessuno nel 2026 58%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
58%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Nessuno nel 2026 58%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
58%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
2%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders place a 58% probability on no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, reflecting measured expectations for large language model progress amid typical release cycles and benchmark saturation. Anthropic leads at 37% implied odds, supported by Claude models' strong recent performance in capability demonstrations and competitive positioning against other frontier labs. Google sits at 10.5% on the back of Gemini updates and infrastructure scaling, while OpenAI and xAI remain below 3% each despite ongoing training runs. Upcoming developer conferences and model releases later this year represent the main near-term swing factors that could shift these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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