Ongoing federal investigations and prosecutions under the current administration shape trader assessments for high-profile arrests by the end of 2026. Recent developments include DOJ efforts to charge Democratic lawmakers and former officials over public statements on military orders, alongside arrests of judges, mayors, and members of Congress tied to immigration enforcement clashes. Additional factors encompass scheduled trials for cases involving figures such as Anthony Fauci and international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu, plus Supreme Court rulings on executive authority and related criminal matters. These proceedings, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and potential new indictments, represent the main catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 1, 2027 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoChi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
$356,895 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
12%
John Brennan
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
21%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
1%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
29%
James Clapper
13%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
3%
Loretta Lynch
9%
Susan Rice
8%
Candace Owens
6%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
3%
Pam Bondi
3%
Tom Homan
11%
Kash Patel
3%
Brandon Johnson
12%
Lisa Cook
10%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$356,895 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$128,133 Vol.
12%
John Brennan
$18,168 Vol.
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,493 Vol.
21%
Adam Schiff
$16,394 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$28,484 Vol.
1%
James Comey
$9,601 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,278 Vol.
29%
James Clapper
$6,706 Vol.
13%
Letitia James
$2,821 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,009 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,008 Vol.
3%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
9%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$263 Vol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$37,141 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,789 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$346 Vol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,898 Vol.
3%
Tom Homan
$39,428 Vol.
11%
Kash Patel
$530 Vol.
3%
Brandon Johnson
$3,174 Vol.
12%
Lisa Cook
$3,218 Vol.
10%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,538 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing federal investigations and prosecutions under the current administration shape trader assessments for high-profile arrests by the end of 2026. Recent developments include DOJ efforts to charge Democratic lawmakers and former officials over public statements on military orders, alongside arrests of judges, mayors, and members of Congress tied to immigration enforcement clashes. Additional factors encompass scheduled trials for cases involving figures such as Anthony Fauci and international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu, plus Supreme Court rulings on executive authority and related criminal matters. These proceedings, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and potential new indictments, represent the main catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 1, 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$356,895Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing federal investigations and prosecutions under the current administration shape trader assessments for high-profile arrests by the end of 2026. Recent developments include DOJ efforts to charge Democratic lawmakers and former officials over public statements on military orders, alongside arrests of judges, mayors, and members of Congress tied to immigration enforcement clashes. Additional factors encompass scheduled trials for cases involving figures such as Anthony Fauci and international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu, plus Supreme Court rulings on executive authority and related criminal matters. These proceedings, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and potential new indictments, represent the main catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 1, 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$356,895Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing federal investigations and prosecutions under the current administration shape trader assessments for high-profile arrests by the end of 2026. Recent developments include DOJ efforts to charge Democratic lawmakers and former officials over public statements on military orders, alongside arrests of judges, mayors, and members of Congress tied to immigration enforcement clashes. Additional factors encompass scheduled trials for cases involving figures such as Anthony Fauci and international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu, plus Supreme Court rulings on executive authority and related criminal matters. These proceedings, combined with ongoing congressional oversight and potential new indictments, represent the main catalysts that could alter implied probabilities before the January 1, 2027 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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