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Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

icon for Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

$356,895 Vol.

Polymarket

$356,895 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$128,133 Vol.

12%

John Brennan

$18,168 Vol.

29%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$21,493 Vol.

21%

Adam Schiff

$16,394 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$28,484 Vol.

1%

James Comey

$9,601 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,278 Vol.

27%

James Clapper

$6,706 Vol.

13%

Letitia James

$2,821 Vol.

13%

Hillary Clinton

$25,009 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,008 Vol.

3%

Loretta Lynch

$2,376 Vol.

11%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$263 Vol.

6%

Gavin Newsom

$37,141 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,789 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$346 Vol.

3%

Pam Bondi

$1,898 Vol.

3%

Tom Homan

$39,428 Vol.

11%

Kash Patel

$530 Vol.

3%

Brandon Johnson

$3,174 Vol.

12%

Lisa Cook

$3,218 Vol.

10%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$5,538 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.High-profile arrests before 2027 hinge on active U.S. investigations, international warrants, and enforcement priorities under the current administration. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing DOJ scrutiny of figures such as Anthony Fauci amid congressional probes and potential charges tied to prior public health policies, alongside ICC actions against Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes in Gaza. Recent developments include expanded ICE operations yielding thousands of immigrant arrests and domestic crackdowns in conflict zones like Iran, where reformist politicians face detention. Key upcoming factors include court rulings, Senate confirmations, and any new indictments or extradition developments that could accelerate timelines for specific individuals versus broader enforcement trends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$356,895
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.High-profile arrests before 2027 hinge on active U.S. investigations, international warrants, and enforcement priorities under the current administration. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing DOJ scrutiny of figures such as Anthony Fauci amid congressional probes and potential charges tied to prior public health policies, alongside ICC actions against Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes in Gaza. Recent developments include expanded ICE operations yielding thousands of immigrant arrests and domestic crackdowns in conflict zones like Iran, where reformist politicians face detention. Key upcoming factors include court rulings, Senate confirmations, and any new indictments or extradition developments that could accelerate timelines for specific individuals versus broader enforcement trends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$356,895
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 24 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "John Brennan" a 28%, seguito da "Mahmoud Khalil" a 27%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 28¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" ha generato $356.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 30, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?", esplora i 24 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è "John Brennan" a 28%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Mahmoud Khalil" a 27%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.