Trader consensus on arrests before 2027 centers on former U.S. officials facing active or potential federal investigations, including John Brennan and James Comey, amid ongoing Department of Justice reviews of prior intelligence and law enforcement actions. Recent developments include expanded healthcare fraud enforcement and ICE operations targeting criminal noncitizens, alongside procedural updates in high-profile cases involving figures such as Lee Jae-myung and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Key drivers include Senate confirmation patterns for agency leadership, scheduled court proceedings or special counsel timelines through December 2026, and any new indictments tied to past policy decisions or foreign affairs. Resolution hinges on whether physical custody or qualifying surrender occurs by year-end, with low probabilities for most listed individuals reflecting structural and evidentiary hurdles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoChi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
$399,799 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
18%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
11%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
20%
James Clapper
10%
Letitia James
10%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
2%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
10%
Kash Patel
2%
Brandon Johnson
13%
Lisa Cook
5%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$399,799 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$158,158 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$21,746 Vol.
18%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,155 Vol.
11%
Adam Schiff
$16,471 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,262 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$9,716 Vol.
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,328 Vol.
20%
James Clapper
$6,754 Vol.
10%
Letitia James
$2,910 Vol.
10%
Hillary Clinton
$25,161 Vol.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,614 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,391 Vol.
11%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,096 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,929 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$501 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$2,027 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$40,398 Vol.
10%
Kash Patel
$564 Vol.
2%
Brandon Johnson
$3,204 Vol.
13%
Lisa Cook
$3,568 Vol.
5%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,481 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on arrests before 2027 centers on former U.S. officials facing active or potential federal investigations, including John Brennan and James Comey, amid ongoing Department of Justice reviews of prior intelligence and law enforcement actions. Recent developments include expanded healthcare fraud enforcement and ICE operations targeting criminal noncitizens, alongside procedural updates in high-profile cases involving figures such as Lee Jae-myung and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Key drivers include Senate confirmation patterns for agency leadership, scheduled court proceedings or special counsel timelines through December 2026, and any new indictments tied to past policy decisions or foreign affairs. Resolution hinges on whether physical custody or qualifying surrender occurs by year-end, with low probabilities for most listed individuals reflecting structural and evidentiary hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$399,799Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on arrests before 2027 centers on former U.S. officials facing active or potential federal investigations, including John Brennan and James Comey, amid ongoing Department of Justice reviews of prior intelligence and law enforcement actions. Recent developments include expanded healthcare fraud enforcement and ICE operations targeting criminal noncitizens, alongside procedural updates in high-profile cases involving figures such as Lee Jae-myung and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Key drivers include Senate confirmation patterns for agency leadership, scheduled court proceedings or special counsel timelines through December 2026, and any new indictments tied to past policy decisions or foreign affairs. Resolution hinges on whether physical custody or qualifying surrender occurs by year-end, with low probabilities for most listed individuals reflecting structural and evidentiary hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$399,799Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on arrests before 2027 centers on former U.S. officials facing active or potential federal investigations, including John Brennan and James Comey, amid ongoing Department of Justice reviews of prior intelligence and law enforcement actions. Recent developments include expanded healthcare fraud enforcement and ICE operations targeting criminal noncitizens, alongside procedural updates in high-profile cases involving figures such as Lee Jae-myung and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Key drivers include Senate confirmation patterns for agency leadership, scheduled court proceedings or special counsel timelines through December 2026, and any new indictments tied to past policy decisions or foreign affairs. Resolution hinges on whether physical custody or qualifying surrender occurs by year-end, with low probabilities for most listed individuals reflecting structural and evidentiary hurdles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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