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icon for Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?

Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?

icon for Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?

Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?

Aileen Cannon 14%

James Ho 14%

Neomi Rao 14%

Andrew Oldham 12%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Aileen Cannon 14%

James Ho 14%

Neomi Rao 14%

Andrew Oldham 12%

Polymarket
NUOVO

John Sauer

$55 Vol.

10%

Mike Lee

$66 Vol.

8%

Ted Cruz

$70 Vol.

10%

Andrew Oldham

$50 Vol.

12%

Aileen Cannon

$58 Vol.

14%

James Ho

$49 Vol.

14%

Neomi Rao

$72 Vol.

14%

Gregory Katsas

$53 Vol.

8%

Patrick Bumatay

$42 Vol.

6%

Steven Menashi

$67 Vol.

7%

Amul Thapar

$43 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$625
Data di fine
19 gen 2029
Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$625
Data di fine
19 gen 2029
Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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"Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 11 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Aileen Cannon" a 14%, seguito da "James Ho" a 14%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 14¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 14% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 24, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?", esplora i 11 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?" è "Aileen Cannon" a 14%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 14% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "James Ho" a 14%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Chi sarà il prossimo amministratore di Trump a nominare SCOTUS Justice?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.