The historically inactive 2026 Atlantic hurricane season drives the 77.4% market-implied probability for fewer than two U.S. hurricane landfalls. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only six named storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first hurricane on record in the satellite era—yielding record-low accumulated cyclone energy. Persistent strong wind shear tied to El Niño conditions has suppressed intensification across the main development region, according to National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring. Tropical Storm Edouard produced the sole recent U.S. coastal impact but remained below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With peak season passing and ensemble models showing limited late-season development potential through November, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of multiple qualifying landfalls before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDue o più uragani approderanno negli Stati Uniti nel 2026?
Due o più uragani approderanno negli Stati Uniti nel 2026?
Sì
23% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Sì
23% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.The historically inactive 2026 Atlantic hurricane season drives the 77.4% market-implied probability for fewer than two U.S. hurricane landfalls. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only six named storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first hurricane on record in the satellite era—yielding record-low accumulated cyclone energy. Persistent strong wind shear tied to El Niño conditions has suppressed intensification across the main development region, according to National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring. Tropical Storm Edouard produced the sole recent U.S. coastal impact but remained below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With peak season passing and ensemble models showing limited late-season development potential through November, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of multiple qualifying landfalls before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,667Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.The historically inactive 2026 Atlantic hurricane season drives the 77.4% market-implied probability for fewer than two U.S. hurricane landfalls. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only six named storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first hurricane on record in the satellite era—yielding record-low accumulated cyclone energy. Persistent strong wind shear tied to El Niño conditions has suppressed intensification across the main development region, according to National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring. Tropical Storm Edouard produced the sole recent U.S. coastal impact but remained below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With peak season passing and ensemble models showing limited late-season development potential through November, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of multiple qualifying landfalls before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
Volume
$1,667Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The historically inactive 2026 Atlantic hurricane season drives the 77.4% market-implied probability for fewer than two U.S. hurricane landfalls. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only six named storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first hurricane on record in the satellite era—yielding record-low accumulated cyclone energy. Persistent strong wind shear tied to El Niño conditions has suppressed intensification across the main development region, according to National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring. Tropical Storm Edouard produced the sole recent U.S. coastal impact but remained below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With peak season passing and ensemble models showing limited late-season development potential through November, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of multiple qualifying landfalls before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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