Seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic basin highlight developing El Niño conditions that are expected to increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, supporting trader consensus around a 34.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide with only a 32% chance of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the U.S. coastline—well below the 43% long-term average—while noting warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures but overall reduced accumulated cyclone energy. The National Hurricane Center began issuing daily tropical outlooks on May 15, with NOAA scheduled to release its official seasonal assessment on May 21. These models emphasize that Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale remain historically infrequent even in active years, though a single late-season intensification event could still alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
$327,972 Vol.
$327,972 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$327,972 Vol.
$327,972 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic basin highlight developing El Niño conditions that are expected to increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, supporting trader consensus around a 34.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide with only a 32% chance of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the U.S. coastline—well below the 43% long-term average—while noting warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures but overall reduced accumulated cyclone energy. The National Hurricane Center began issuing daily tropical outlooks on May 15, with NOAA scheduled to release its official seasonal assessment on May 21. These models emphasize that Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale remain historically infrequent even in active years, though a single late-season intensification event could still alter outcomes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,972Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic basin highlight developing El Niño conditions that are expected to increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, supporting trader consensus around a 34.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide with only a 32% chance of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the U.S. coastline—well below the 43% long-term average—while noting warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures but overall reduced accumulated cyclone energy. The National Hurricane Center began issuing daily tropical outlooks on May 15, with NOAA scheduled to release its official seasonal assessment on May 21. These models emphasize that Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale remain historically infrequent even in active years, though a single late-season intensification event could still alter outcomes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,972Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Seasonal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic basin highlight developing El Niño conditions that are expected to increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, supporting trader consensus around a 34.5% implied probability for any Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide with only a 32% chance of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the U.S. coastline—well below the 43% long-term average—while noting warmer western Atlantic sea-surface temperatures but overall reduced accumulated cyclone energy. The National Hurricane Center began issuing daily tropical outlooks on May 15, with NOAA scheduled to release its official seasonal assessment on May 21. These models emphasize that Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale remain historically infrequent even in active years, though a single late-season intensification event could still alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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