President Javier Milei’s administration has shifted from campaign pledges of full dollarization to a managed exchange-rate band and crawling peg system supported by IMF financing and a U.S. currency swap line. With only weeks remaining before the June 30, 2026 cutoff, no legislative framework or central-bank transition plan has advanced, leaving the peso as legal tender. Traders assign a 98.5 percent probability to “No” because these policy choices and the absence of congressional momentum create insurmountable barriers in the narrow remaining window. Late executive action or an unforeseen legislative push could theoretically alter the outcome, yet both face entrenched fiscal, political, and public-preference constraints that have already delayed similar reforms.