Israeli government statements have consistently ruled out formal annexation of Gaza territory, with policy focus instead on security operations and limited settlement activity in the West Bank. Recent cabinet decisions advancing land registration and administrative control there, approved in February 2026, have not extended to Gaza, where official positions emphasize no territorial claims. Traders reflect this through near-certain consensus on the “No” outcome, consistent with historical precedent against rapid sovereignty claims amid ongoing diplomatic pressures and international opposition. Late developments such as shifts in coalition priorities, major security escalations, or new U.S. administration signals could still introduce uncertainty before the June 30, 2026 resolution date.