**Strong local opposition, procedural delays, and a new county moratorium have slowed momentum on the Stratos data center project in Box Elder County, Utah, supporting traders’ 61.5% probability that ground will not break in 2026.** The proposal, advanced through the Utah Military Installation Development Authority and unanimously approved by county commissioners in early May 2026, quickly drew protests over water use near the Great Salt Lake, wildlife impacts, energy demand, and the original 40,000-acre footprint. Utah Senate President J. Stuart Adams, who chairs the MIDA board, responded on June 1 by requesting a 75% reduction in project area plus added environmental safeguards. O’Leary initially resisted but submitted a revised plan on June 4 shrinking the site to roughly 20,000 acres. On June 10 the county commission imposed a 180-day moratorium on new data centers and associated power plants, while residents filed lawsuits challenging the approvals. The project still lacks key permits for land, water, noise, and federal environmental reviews, and O’Leary has not yet secured financing or a hyperscale tenant. These layered political, legal, and regulatory hurdles—concentrated in the past six weeks—have extended the timeline beyond 2026 in the eyes of market participants.