**Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% surcharge on New York City incomes above $1 million requires state legislative approval and gubernatorial signature, a process that has faced repeated resistance.** Governor Kathy Hochul previously rejected similar measures, citing risks of resident and business out-migration, while the state’s 2026 budget instead advanced a separate pied-à-terre surcharge on high-value second homes. With the legislative calendar leaving only weeks in 2026 for major tax changes, the short timeline and need for broad coalition support in Albany have kept the proposal stalled. Ongoing legal challenges to the existing second-home tax further illustrate implementation hurdles. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to “No” because these structural and timing barriers remain unaddressed. A late special session yielding unexpected bipartisan support or a shift in the governor’s stance could still alter the outcome before year-end.