Max Verstappen’s Red Bull contract through 2028, coupled with exit clauses that require poor championship standing to activate, underpins the 78% implied probability he will not retire after the 2026 season. Despite voicing frustration with the new regulations and car characteristics following an eighth-place result at the Japanese Grand Prix in March, recent paddock commentary from rivals and team principals indicates he remains committed to competing through at least the end of this campaign. His four-time champion status, consistent points-scoring pace in the current power-unit era, and the absence of any formal retirement notice continue to shape trader consensus toward continuation rather than an early exit.