Reza Pahlavi remains in exile in the United States as of mid-2026, with his potential entry into Iran tied directly to the Islamic Republic's collapse or decisive internal breakdown. He has repeatedly conditioned any return on regime change, releasing transition blueprints such as the Iran Prosperity Project and issuing March 2026 video statements urging supporters to prepare for a "final call" while noting the government's weakened repression capacity after prior unrest and external strikes. February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military actions, including strikes and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, intensified speculation but did not trigger sufficient domestic upheaval for his return. Traders monitor ongoing regime resilience, any new protests or defections, and Pahlavi's public signals, as near-term entry faces structural barriers including security risks and the absence of a clear power vacuum.